The Workforce of the Future

As a civilization, we stand on the cusp of dramatic demographic change that over the next generation will transform the global workforce.

In the coming decades, populations will shrink in regions that for the past half century have provided workers who have fueled the greatest spurt of global economic growth, technical innovation, and prosperity humankind has ever known. Rapid drops are expected in Asia and Latin America, while declines already underway in North America and Europe will persist.

Economists and sociologists believe that to support current levels of global growth, the workforce needed to take us to the next level must come from a region expected to provide nearly the entire net increase of the world’s working age population over the next 20 years: the low- and middle-income nations of Africa. While there are other countries and regions experiencing their own population growth and youth bulges, it is the sheer size of Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth that has captured the attention of planners and policymakers.

The challenge, especially for the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa, is how to prepare the workforce so it can more effectively participate in a global economy that is increasingly automated and digital.

While no one doubts the quantity of Africa’s projected strong “youth spurt” in the coming decades, there are serious concerns that the education systems in the continent’s 54 countries can turn out the quality of workforce required to compete in today’s global economy.

Despite decades of development assistance and budgets of national governments that prioritize education and routinely support it with spending equivalent to 4% of GDP or more, far too many graduates complete their primary education without basic literacy and numeracy skills. Those working to strengthen basic education levels often refer to Africa’s “learning poverty.”

The stakes involved in this effort to close this skills gap and make Africa’s workforce competitive could not be higher. The World Bank estimates that closing this gap could add $6.5 trillion—about 5-6% of global GDP—in the next five years.

“It’s a very sobering picture,” says Xiaoyan Liang, lead education specialist at the World Bank. “If we fail to develop the human capability of Africa’s youth, the costs will be huge—not just for Africa but for all of humanity.”

The Skills Gap

Because of this, skills development is at the heart of a major global transition driven by demographic shifts, technological advances, and the effects of climate change that are affecting education and labor markets worldwide. The challenge, especially for the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa, is how to prepare the workforce so it can more effectively participate in a global economy that is increasingly automated and digital.

As technology accelerates, the demands become greater. Miho Taguma is a senior policy analyst at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, and leads their work in this area; she says basic technical and specialized skills are no longer enough.

“So far, investment in developing workforces in Africa has been disproportionately focused on work that requires the ability to master basic repetitive tasks—one that planners refer to as “knowing.” But workers with these skills are finding themselves increasingly facing competition from artificial intelligence,” says Taguma.

In addition to knowing, those who direct the project have defined a second, higher level of skills they call “understanding.” Knowing includes literacy and numeracy skills that enable workers to manage repetitive tasks well. Understanding–the part that AI can’t easily replicate–requires knowledge of big ideas and key concepts and understanding of ethical standards and the importance of positive values. Understanding also requires more subtle skills like critical thinking, problem-solving, communication, leadership, and adaptability, called transversal skills.

Industrialized countries have their own issues. Take the United States, where those focused on strengthening workforce competitiveness describe the education-to-workforce pipeline as 'broken.'

But the low-and middle-income countries are among the least prepared to do that.

Many young people in these countries attend—and often complete—their schooling without acquiring basic literacy skills. For example, more than 80% of Ghana’s working-age population cannot infer simple information from relatively easy text; the figure in Kenya is 60%. Africa isn’t alone in struggling to meet these goals. In India–now the world’s most populous country–nearly three quarters of all fifth graders can’t do simple division and more than half can’t read at second grade level, even in their own language.

As if the entire task wasn’t daunting from the start, the global pandemic has made it even harder. According to the World Bank, 220 million post-secondary students dropped out of school or lost training opportunities during that crisis.

Challenges at Home

Industrialized countries have their own issues. Take the United States, where those focused on strengthening workforce competitiveness describe the education-to-workforce pipeline as “broken.” They say not enough students are enrolling in higher education programs nor are they obtaining credentials that offer better employment opportunities and higher pay. The US education and training system is largely designed for “a once and done” era, an era that no longer exists, and no longer effectively supports a future-ready workforce.

After gaining independence in 1991, Estonia set out to shore up its technology infrastructure and make sure it was ready for the coming digital age.

These development specialists argue that we need a system that potentially supports every worker at some point, and likely multiple points, in their lives, adding the world needs systems–and cultures–that encourage lifelong learning. They also note that today most countries invest less than 0.5% of global GDP in this critical area.

Shifting Demographics Require Change

Declining fertility rates and an aging workforce are creating a shortage of skilled workers. Increasing life expectancies are creating a more age-diverse workforce, while at the same time, mass migration is creating a more culturally diverse workforce. These changing demographics are leading to demands for more flexible work arrangements, as the rapid pace of technological change is creating a need for lifelong learning. A young and diverse workforce can be a gift, but it requires a lot of work, and investment including quality education, high-level technical skills, and much more.

With the demographic shifts in mind, the OECD, launched the Future of Education and Skills 2030 project in 2015. The vision was to understand the knowledge, skills, attitudes, and values that a younger generation of students need to thrive and shape the future for better lives and societal well-being. The project has a goal to enable mainly low- and middle-income countries to develop a workforce that can compete in global markets. It focuses on skills, but also on the ethics and values needed for responsible economic growth.

The OCED believes that three core foundations can help guide governments and educators with their workforce development efforts more effectively. Literacy and numeracy remain important, but in a world that is increasingly unpredictable, physical and emotional health and adaptability are also foundational to the lifelong learning that is now required. So, how do we nurture the higher-order skills of problem-solving and communications, alongside the socio-emotional skills of managing relationships, leading and building teams that are also important?

Such an effort needs significant investment that requires years to pay off.

Culture and Building the Global Workforce

China, for example, invested heavily in education, expanding the country’s university-level student population from 2.1 million in 1990 to 32.9 million in just 30 years, providing an invaluable injection of advanced skills and knowledge that helped drive the country’s impressive economic growth. While China’s past growth is impressive, the hyper-focus has created its own challenges that the country is now struggling to counter.

Many Asian countries, with cultures known for order and a strong work ethic, continue to have high literacy and numeracy scores, but the small former Soviet Republic of Estonia is right on their heels.

Estonia?

After gaining independence in 1991, Estonia set out to shore up its technology infrastructure and make sure it was ready for the coming digital age. By 1997 they had established a program called Tiger Leap, which ensured that every school had computers and was connected to the internet. But it was more than hardware and cable runs that helped them strengthen their education system.

“The Estonian education system values autonomy at all levels, reflecting decades ruled from Moscow as a part of the Soviet Empire, then achieving independence,” says OECD’s Taguma. “Estonian students are encouraged to develop their own projects and their own curricula, so they own their own learning.”

That autonomy, says Teguma, is key to Estonia’s success, as in self-directed learning. By using the OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment, Estonia boasts the best scores in Europe. It also offers a lesson for Sub-Saharan Africa.

“African education policymakers can think more freely, for example, adapting systems to fit the needs of students rather than making students fit the systems. However, their ties to British or French systems still retain as large segments of their education systems and curricula—systems that over the years have undergone major updates at home.”

Whether in Estonia or Zimbabwe, in order to develop human capital, Taguma believes we must allow each individual to explore their best potential to get their best in return. That, she says, is what the US and other developed countries should invest in.

One way to counter that, says Liang of the World Bank, is to encourage African countries to take greater control over their own development agenda and align education and training more closely with requirements of the labor market. But with 54 countries, more than 3,000 ethnic groups and 2,100 languages that cross national and other political boundaries, the task isn’t easy. A colonial past that has weakened cultural attributes, uneven governance, and weak implementation capacity, also doesn't help. Especially when compared to China, with one ethnic group (91% Han ethnic Chinese), just one political party, and an early laser-focused vision on its priorities for growth: basic education and health.

Difficult, but not impossible.

The World Bank supports skills development and service delivery worldwide through both formal and informal technical and vocational education and training. They have an annual portfolio of $3 billion in Africa alone. Through that work they’ve learned that it is critical to strengthen partnerships between academia, industry, and governments.

For example, the East Africa Skills for Transformation and Regional Integration project focuses on strengthening sixteen Africa regional flagship learning centers, enabling them to offer responsive, flexible, and inclusive training programs at various levels—from certificates to degrees—in sectors that are both emerging and critical to economic development. Each one focuses on a different sector like energy, transportation, or agriculture.

“Through strengthening industry linkages and institutional autonomy, the project unleashed innovation and service delivery directly at the provider level,” says Liang. She believes that if countries are clear about their comparative advantages and use what is already working for them—say mining in Zambia and tourism in Tanzania—to hone and showcase their talents, they can lead by example.

That idea of valuing and using your innate gifts—individually or collectively—rings true with Teguma.

“When I was a university student, I lived with the Masai people in Kenya. Of course, the Masai speak the Masai language, but they needed to learn Swahili and English as the official languages. I noticed that when the Masai women were speaking in Masai with a lot of people, they were so strong. But when they came to talk to me in English, they struggled and lost their confidence,” says Teguma. “As people, we want to be valued for who we are, but some systems may make us feel we are not good enough for those particular systems.”

Whether in Estonia or Zimbabwe, in order to develop human capital, Taguma believes we must allow each individual to explore their best potential to get their best in return. That, she says, is what the US and other developed countries should invest in.

“A child’s brain can take whatever you give it, so we should give them the whole package and let locals decide which parts to take depending on their context,” says Taguma. “With the right policies and right education system in these countries, they can succeed.”

Stephanie Bowen is the editor of the Wilson Quarterly. Tyler Marshall is an award-winning journalist.

Cover photo: Shutterstock/Boijonell Prod.