America's Future Prosperity Flows Through the Indo-Pacific

The security and prosperity of the United States are closely tied with the Indo-Pacific, and a “shared and lived history of geographic affiliation with the Pacific region undergirds much of contemporary US geopolitical thinking.” America’s leaders have long defined the national interest as justifying an enduring presence in the region, predating the current geopolitical rivalry between the US and China.

US geopolitics is defined by the country’s trade and commerce, and the prevention of disorder and instability in distant areas, thought of as manifest destiny-assigned roles for an exceptional civilization and its people. Donald Trump begins his second presidency when the global situation is beset with instability, fragmentation, and a mounting risk of great-power conflict between the US and China. It has been said that “geopolitics has returned with a vengeance.” As things fall apart, the future cannot remain secure and predictable, and the Indo-Pacific is at the vortex of these transformations.

The Indo-Pacific is home to at least half of the world’s population, a key hub of global trade, representing two-thirds of the world’s economy, and a center for manufacturing and technological innovation. The region is also a theatre of strategic risk. As a revisionist China upsets the regional balance with coercive and provocative grey zone tactics that threaten neighbors both on land and sea, the specter of conflict looms large, endangering the growth and security of the region. It is also vulnerable to global warming, climate-induced natural disasters, and the threat of future pandemics.

The geopolitical competition between the US and China requires the US to project its power in the Indo-Pacific to deter Chinese coercion and ensure a viable regional strategic balance.

The new US administration cannot bypass America’s leading role in ensuring the region does not descend into chaos and conflict. There are numerous reasons why the economic, strategic, and technological dimensions of the Indo-Pacific should be a key focus of President Trump’s foreign policy.

As home to the fastest-growing economies in the world like China, India, Japan, and the ASEAN community of nations, the Indo-Pacific is a driver of global prosperity in technology, energy, and manufacturing, making it a pivotal region for long-term American interests. Trillions of dollars of global trade flow through the region on vital maritime transport and communication nodes where freedom of navigation must be protected. Supply chains for critical resources in energy, rare earths, and electronics sourced regionally remain crucial for the progress and wellbeing of the American population. Furthermore, it is the hub for key technological innovation. Countries like Japan, India, Singapore, and South Korea are at the forefront of artificial intelligence, robotics, clean energy, and biotechnology, and the US stands to gain from the robust continuation of such partnerships.

The Indo-Pacific is not a distant place for America, it defines the geographic identity of the United States as a maritime superpower, unhemmed by continental shores.

The geopolitical competition between the US and China requires the US to project its power in the Indo-Pacific to deter Chinese coercion and ensure a viable regional strategic balance. America’s key alliances and partnerships with regional democracies secure the region’s stability and help maintain a rules-based international order. The Indo-Pacific has thrived in an open rules-based global economy and an atmosphere of peace and tranquility. Most countries in the region want to see the United States and China “compete productively in a race to the top rather than to the bottom.”

Overall trends point to the need to strengthen alliances and partnerships between the US and like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific with a focus on resilient economic strategy and supply chain security. Prosperity for the US and the Indo-Pacific depends on the astute deployment of multilateralism, plurilateral groupings, and bilateral means to secure stability and resilience for all in the region. Primary concerns are climate change mitigation, disaster relief and humanitarian aid, and future pandemic preparedness. It is also important to maintain rules-based governance, mutual prosperity, and stable global markets—and to avoid military confrontation. Complications over Taiwan and the US’s utilization of the island as a strategic lever against China could engender global economic and supply chain disruption and drive up the risk of military confrontation. Initiatives like the Quad, whose revival was catalyzed during the first Trump administration, help shape the regional order to safeguard strategic stability in the face of territorial disputes sparked by China.

The Indo-Pacific is not a distant place for America, it defines the geographic identity of the United States as a maritime superpower, unhemmed by continental shores.  American interests are intricately embedded in this geographic space that crucially defines America’s future global role and is a key arena for the projection of American power.

In November 2017 at the APEC CEO Summit in Vietnam, President Trump declared that “America stands as a proud member of the community of nations who make a home on the Pacific.” It is the region’s hope that America’s emphasis on strong societies, robust economies, and vibrant communities for a free, secure, prosperous, and open Indo-Pacific, is further enhanced during the second Trump administration.

Nirupama Rao is a Wilson Center global fellow and previously served as India's Foreign Secretary and as Indian Ambassador to the US and China.

Cover photo: Participants of a summit on the economic initiative called the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework attend a photo session on Nov. 16, 2023, in San Francisco. Pool photo. Kyodo via AP Images.