Introduction: The Great Population Shakeup

A country’s demographic trends are often cited among the risks or opportunities that it faces. Youth bulges could bring political instability; a robust working age population promises a “demographic dividend” of economic prosperity and strengthened democracy. As one generation ages out of the labor force, another slips into place, taking on the responsibility for economic growth (while paying into social security, caring for parents, and often raising a family). So, it has been and so it will always be... right? Not necessarily.

Immediate and growing effects of changing global demographics may drastically shift longstanding economic and political patterns and perhaps, help to shift long-held assumptions.

The summer 2024 edition of the Wilson Quarterly is titled “The Great Population Shakeup” and assesses how the immediate and growing effects of changing global demographics may drastically shift longstanding economic and political patterns and perhaps, help to shift long-held assumptions. Simple statistics of rising and falling population numbers do not capture the more intricate interplay of challenges and opportunities presented by the coexistence of powerful economies that are shrinking as they age, and fast-developing regions characterized by rising youthful populations striving for political empowerment and economic advancement. The stakes are high for our planet’s security and sustainability. Many of the risks are obvious, but opportunities to shape shakeups and use them as a springboard to a better planet for its people also abound.

Beyond the Numbers

Key fundamentals in demography, including population growth, remain intact. Global population has been on the rise for centuries at varying rates of growth. In a span of just 100 years, from the early 19th century to the early 20th century, the global population doubled from 1 billion to 2 billion, spurred by the Industrial Revolution’s advancements in technology, medicine, and agriculture. The momentum of growth accelerated even further in the following decades, with the next 2 billion added in just 50 years. By the autumn of 2023, the world's population had surged to 8 billion. Yet that growth is slowing, and the latest United Nations projections indicate that globally, population will peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. Decades of improvements in healthcare and education, increased employment opportunities for women, changing social norms, and—in the case of China’s one-child policy—coercive approaches have led to declining fertility rates. In fact, fertility rates in more than half of all countries globally fall below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Young people are at the center of any shakeup. Simply put, they will inherit the planet and live on it longer.

However, these statistics do not capture the immense fluidity and potential collision of powerful trends in other areas of human existence, including shrinking and booming economies, the increasing intensity of climate impacts felt among rising populations, and growing risks of global conflict. The Wilson Quarterly assembled a distinguished array of writers to dig deeper into the larger currents that will shape the “Great Population Shakeup,” and their expert analysis provides readers with the information they need to make better decisions in foreign policy and national security.

Young people are at the center of any shakeup. Simply put, they will inherit the planet and live on it longer. Today's generation of youth is the largest in history, equal to the total world population in 1950. By 2080, those youth will be the largest generation of individuals aged 65 and above, surpassing (for the first time) the number of those younger than 18. For some, that transition will come even sooner; 28% of the world’s population lives in countries where the population has peaked, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia. In 48 other countries, the population will likely peak between 2025 and 2054.

When it comes to demography, the future will not look like the past. If country leaders do not account for changing population dynamics in their decision-making, they raise the risk of economic and political instability at home and abroad—while also missing vital opportunities for leadership and growth.

Richard Cincotta’s interactive feature gives readers a readily digestible primer on how a country’s age structure affects overall development and shows how these issues play out broadly across the globe. Other writers in this issue look deeper into the regional impacts of these trends on economic and political security. As noted, global populations will peak and then decline, yet population projections aren’t devoid of growth. The UN projects that 126 countries will continue to grow through 2054. This includes some of the world’s most populous countries, like Indonesia, Pakistan, and Nigeria.

Africa is a continent demonstrating how youth population booms will dominate future discussions of opportunity and challenge. By 2050, Nigeria’s population is expected to double to 400 million, with women of childbearing age and young people far outweighing the older population. This significant demographic shift has the potential to propel Nigeria toward a period of substantial economic growth, writes Amarachi Nwosu, who curated a collection of photography from Taiwo Aina, Ifebusola Shotunde, and Ugochukwu Emebiriodo that show the process is already underway. The creativity driving Nollywood and Afrobeats makes Nigeria a force whose cultural activity shapes global trends and drives more than $600 million annually to Nigeria’s GDP. Yet realizing the country's potential will mean grappling with the threat of climate change to livelihoods and health, unequal access to education (especially for girls), and high unemployment.

Nigeria’s boom is just one story. A simultaneous aging and shrinking population in today’s powerhouse economies poses unique threats and challenges. Clément Gibon examines what rising youth populations in the Middle East/North Africa region might mean in this key geographic region. In Latin America, writes Helder Marinho, the corresponding declines in the labor force could spell trouble for a region whose window to invest in infrastructure, education, and markets is closing. Asia also poses questions and Wang Feng examines China’s population dynamic and its immense potential impact on global economics, while Leela Visara assesses what’s happening with population and gender in the world’s largest democracy, India.

Demographic Destiny

The “Great Population Shakeup” we are currently experiencing has other ramifications for issues at the forefront of national security and political discussions. The diversity of today's demographic trends is unprecedented, and is playing out amidst a changing climate, political upheaval, and increased conflict. Demography is not destiny—but it is not divorced from it either. From military readiness to economic prosperity, population trends (fertility, mortality, and migration) are deeply entwined with the options that countries have to advance their interests.

In the United States, low fertility rates and aging populations mean that immigration is all that stands between the country and population decline.

In the United States, low fertility rates and aging populations mean that immigration is all that stands between the country and population decline. Jack Goldstone observes that more people are on the move than ever before and delves into the complex realm of immigration and its pivotal role in shaping economic prosperity for affluent nations. He cautions that in order to reap the benefits of immigration it is critical not to inflame the populist backlash to immigration.

Mark Maslin offers a stark and sobering assessment of how population trends intersect with climate goals, scrutinizing the dynamics of consumption in the creation of internal and external security risks for nation-states.

This issue of the Wilson Quarterly also reminds us that there are stories of opportunity and human striving and suffering associated with any shakeup. WQ editor Stephanie Bowen and Tyler Marshall explore how developing a workforce ready for the future can prepare low-and-middle income nations to fill the gaps created by demographic tumult and bring leadership opportunities to the world’s largest economies. Sarah Barnes and Jay Gribble acknowledge the struggles and resilience of populations particularly affected by these shifts: women, immigrants, and aging populations. 

This issue of the Wilson Quarterly also reminds us that there are stories of opportunity and human striving and suffering associated with any shakeup.

As the global population continues its uneven climb, the stakes feel higher than ever. Climate change is changing the livability of the planet, and the renewable energy transition is disrupting our complex and politically fraught energy systems in unpredictable ways. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to sacrifice Russia’s declining population to its brutal campaign in Ukraine. In countries around the world, the very rights that have enabled women to enter the workforce and strengthen the countries’ economic competitiveness are being threatened and, in some cases, rolled back.

So, the short answer is no. When it comes to demography, the future will not look like the past. If country leaders do not account for changing population dynamics in their decision-making, they raise the risk of economic and political instability at home and abroad—while also missing vital opportunities for leadership and growth.

Lauren Herzer Risi is director of the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program which covers demography as an essential part of its portfolio.