Youthquake in the Middle East and North Africa

In the vibrant heart of Baghdad's Karada Street, 25-year-old Iraqi entrepreneur Ali Radhi is making notable strides. Just a year ago, Radhi launched his second company, Vodex, aimed at supporting startups in a region rich with youthful potential. His success story reflects the innovative spirit prevalent among the youth in the Middle East and North Africa—and his startup is already showing significant growth.

“I founded my startup in 2023. Initially I worked alone, having previously freelanced with leading companies in web graphics and user experience design. Over time, I expanded by hiring additional team members, and our project progressively grew larger,” Radhi explained. “Today, we operate from an office at the Station, a coworking space designed for startups and small businesses. I manage a diverse team of developers from Iraq, Nigeria, and India.”

The current increase in young people is part of a more profound demographic transformation taking place over the past several decades, known as the youth bulge.

Radhi’s achievements are emblematic of a broader demographic shift sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa, known as MENA. The region is growing at an annual rate of 1.6% compared to 0.8% worldwide and adding nearly 7 million people each year. This demographic transformation, characterized by a significant proportion of young people, brings both substantial opportunities and some challenges that vary from one country to another.

 “A large, young workforce can drive economic growth—if properly harnessed through education and employment opportunities. Younger populations also tend to be more entrepreneurial and adaptable, potentially leading to increased innovation and business creation,” said Aya Jaafar, a labor economist at the International Labor Organization's regional office for the Arab States. “If provided with the right skills, they can also drive economic diversification—including in the digital and green economies, amongst others.”

However, Jaafar warns that this demographic dividend can become a “curse” if job creation does not keep pace with population growth, bringing higher rates of unemployment—particularly among the youth—and potentially leading to economic instability and social unrest.

“Unemployed individuals also strain social protection systems, requiring reforms to ensure sustainability. High rates of labor underutilization also translate into lower economic growth, limited potential for economic diversification, digitalization and transition to the green economy,” Jaafar added.

A Region on the Rise: Understanding the MENA Demographic Surge

The current increase in young people is part of a more profound demographic transformation taking place over the past several decades, known as the youth bulge. This term refers to having a significant portion of the population between the ages of 15 and 29.

During the early to mid-1980s, many countries in the MENA region experienced a significant decline in infant mortality rates, leading to larger family sizes. This period of high fertility, coupled with improved child survival rates, resulted in a substantial youth population by the turn of the century. As these individuals entered their reproductive years, they contributed to a second wave of population growth.

According to the International Labor Organization, the youth unemployment rate in the region is projected to be 25.5% in 2024, more than three times higher than the adult unemployment rate, and significantly above the global youth unemployment rate.

The population pyramids for the region vividly illustrate a steady increase of the working-age population (15–64 years), a substantial bulge in those between 25 and 35 years, and another in the 5 to 15-year-old cohorts, as of 2024.

“The fertility rate temporarily increased during the peak reproductive years of the youth bulge generation. This led to a compound effect: a large number of potential parents coupled with a higher fertility rate. Consequently, there was a baby boom around the mid-2000s, which lasted for roughly 10 years,” said Ragui Assaad, a professor at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota.

According to the World Bank, MENA’s population more than doubled from 109 million in the 1960s to 256 million by 1990; it reached 321 million by 2000 and currently stands at around 500 million. The first generation of the youth bulge is now in their 30s and 40s, having just completed their high fertility phase. Meanwhile, the echo generation, as described by Assaad, is now entering teenagehood and is poised to significantly impact the region's socioeconomic landscape.

This will put even more pressure on the different systems, as it is estimated that half of the countries in the MENA region are projected to experience a population growth of at least 50 percent from their 2015 levels. Iraq, Sudan, and the State of Palestine are expected to see their populations just about double their 2015 population by 2050. Some countries, like Libya, Tunisia, and Morocco, will experience only a slight population increase, while Lebanon will be the only country in the region to experience a population decrease.

Youth Unemployment Soars: A Regional Crisis

As Assaad describes, the MENA region has faced significant stress in recent years due to a large number of children reaching school age. This stress is now shifting to the labor market, with many young people entering the workforce amidst insufficient job opportunities. According to the International Labor Organization, the youth unemployment rate in the region is projected to be 25.5% in 2024, more than three times higher than the adult unemployment rate, and significantly above the global youth unemployment rate, which is projected at 12.8% in 2024. Youth unemployment is even higher among women, reaching 39.7% in the MENA region in 2024, with stark disparities between countries, from as high as 63.3% in Iraq to as low as 1.6% in Qatar.

Sondos Mahmoud Fedda, a 29-year-old graduate from Philadelphia University in Amman, Jordan, finished her studies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite earning a bachelor's degree in architecture and engineering, she has been unable to secure a job.

“I graduated in March 2020, and once the lockdown started, I couldn't look for jobs. After everything opened up again, I created my CV and went to every possible architectural, engineering, or civil engineering company,” Fedda said.

Amidst these complex challenges, the personal stories of young people reflect both the struggles and aspirations that characterize current circumstances.

She managed to find an internship with the government, but after a year, still had not found full-time employment. Today, Fedda continues to apply for jobs online, but the only opportunities she finds are freelance jobs. Four years after graduating, Fedda is frustrated.

“I spent five years in university, and it feels like it was all for nothing. It makes me question why I invested so much time and money into my education if it doesn’t lead to a job in the end,” Fedda said. “I know so many people who graduated as engineers but didn't find any jobs here, so they either started something else or went abroad to work in fields unrelated to their studies.”

Those with higher education levels are notably more inclined to consider emigrating compared to those with less education, suggesting a potential risk of brain drain in the region. According to the latest data by the Arab Barometer, more than half of the college-educated populations in Sudan (60%), Jordan (56%), and Tunisia (56%) express a desire to leave their homelands. With an ongoing economic crisis in Lebanon nearly two-thirds of youth ages 18-29 want to leave, presumably due to the lack of hope they have for their futures.

Bridging the Gap: Education and Job Creation in the Region

According to Jaafar, the high youth unemployment rate stems from insufficient capacity to generate adequate, decent, and productive jobs for an increasingly educated workforce.

“Many economies are either reliant on the oil sector or public sector, the latter becoming increasingly oversaturated. The private sector on the contrary is underdeveloped, with a high share of jobs created in the informal economy, associated with low-paid and low-productive jobs, unattractive to the educated cohort," Jaafar said. “The business climate and regulatory framework in the region pose significant barriers to entrepreneurship. Young entrepreneurs often face difficulties in launching, expanding, and maintaining their ventures due to cumbersome bureaucracy, insufficient supportive policies, and scarce resources.”

Access to financing is also a particularly challenging issue, as young business owners frequently encounter obstacles in obtaining credit, venture capital, and other financial services, which hampers their ability to innovate and grow their enterprises.

In Iraq, Radhi's attempt to register his first company illustrates these challenges. Despite investing approximately 3 million Iraqi dinars (equivalent to roughly $2,500) and waiting for a year and a half, he was unable to complete the lengthy registration process.

“Today, I am trying to register my second company, but I am still mired in the second stage of the fourth stage of the registration process. It not only requires substantial financial resources but also consumes a significant amount of my time,” Radhi said.

Despite these challenges, some policies have been implemented in the region to align education with the needs of the local economies. For example, the Abdulla Al Ghurair Foundation  is one of the largest privately funded philanthropic organizations in the Arab region and is at the forefront of advancing the professionalization of student academia. They equip students with essential skills such as digital literacy, communications, and critical thinking.

“We began by consulting with our hiring partners to determine the profiles of candidates they plan to hire in the next three years. Understanding the difficulties they face in finding suitable candidates, we proposed a solution. What if our foundation provided certifications through short intensive courses lasting three months or six weeks?” explained Dr. Sonia Ben Jaafar, CEO of the Abdulla Al Ghurair Foundation. “We then presented these trained individuals to the hiring partners. In return, we asked them to commit to either hiring these candidates as paid interns, offering them interviews, or providing opportunities for employment, promotion, or further development.”

In addition to these educational initiatives, there are signs of demographic stabilization in some parts of the region. The fertility rate has dropped from 5.9 live births per woman in 1975 to 2.7 in 2024, with further decreases expected in the coming decades.  While Tunisia, and most Gulf countries have achieved near replacement-level fertility rates, indicating a shift toward demographic stability, other countries like Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine still grapple with high fertility. Countries such as Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria linger somewhere in between.

As professor Assaad observes, “It looks like different parts of the region are following similar patterns, but at different times. North Africa, for example, may have progressed through this process earlier, while the Arab East still has areas with relatively high fertility rates.”

Amidst these complex challenges, the personal stories of young people reflect both the struggles and aspirations that characterize current circumstances.

“We now have many workers who are leveraging their communities and contributing to others, creating benefits for everyone involved. It is crucial to understand that these are young people eager to develop their skills,” Dr. Ben Jaafar said regarding the youth potential. “They are curious, respectful, and want to be contributing members of society like anyone else and take pride in their accomplishments. If we give them that chance, they will thrive.”

Clément Gibon is a freelance photographer and journalist based in Amman, Jordan, who documents humanitarian affairs, human rights, and social conflict in the Middle East. He has written for a variety of English, Arab and French media including Time Magazine, Middle East Eye, Wilson Quarterly, Daraj, Al Monitor, Le Monde Diplomatique, and Libération.

Cover photo: Dr. Sonia Ben Jaafar, CEO, engaging with students enrolled in the Nomu Al Ghurair-Talaaqa Program in the United Arab Emirates, June 12, 2024. Courtesy of the Abdulla Al Ghurair Foundation.