Hydrogen Hype

“Rethinking Hydrogen Cars” by David W. Keith and Alexander E. Farrell, in Science (July 18, 2003), American Assn. for the Advancement of Science, 1200 New York Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005.

Are hydrogen cars the next new thing? Hydrogen fuels, advocates say, could reduce air pollution, ward off global warming, and reduce dependence on foreign oil. President George W. Bush has proposed a $1.7 billion, five-year plan to develop hydrogen-fueled vehicles and supporting infrastructure. But Keith, a professor of engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University, and Farrell, a professor of energy and resources at the University of California, Berkeley, say that, at this point, it’s just so much gas.

“If hydrogen cars are ever to match the performance of current vehicles at a reasonable cost—particularly fueling convenience, range, and size—technological breakthroughs in hydrogen storage and energy conversion will be required,” the authors say. Costs will be very high. Just setting up a new hydrogen-fuel distribution system would cost more than $5,000 per vehicle initially.

Hydrogen can be burned cleanly or used in fuel cells, thus virtually eliminating vehicular air pollution, Keith and Farrell acknowledge. But the improvement would come at a relatively high cost because “regulation-driven technological innovation” has already reduced emissions from gasoline-powered cars to low levels. It will cost less than $16,000 per metric ton to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions to meet the latest Environmental Protection Agency standards for gasoline vehicles. More gains can be had at relatively low cost. But the additional reductions achieved by hydrogen would cost roughly $1 million per metric ton.

And while hydrogen cars emit no carbon dioxide at the point of use, the production of hydrogen is likely to release that greenhouse gas. Why? Because it is much cheaper to make hydrogen from coal or natural gas than from non–fossil fuel sources. If reducing carbon dioxide emissions is the goal, the authors say, it would be far more cost effective to replace today’s fossil fuel–fired electric power plants with wind or nuclear plants.

Hydrogen cars are an attractive long-run possibility, Keith and Farrell conclude, but not the only one—and not one America should wholeheartedly embrace anytime soon.